ARRIVAL PATTERNS AND TRAFFIC FLOW CHARACTERISTICS AT SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS CONSIDERING UPSTREAM SIGNAL INFLUENCE AND TIME RESOLUTIONS

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Olanrewaju Oluwafemi Akinfala
Emmanuel Enyeribe Ege
Ladi Folorunso Ogunwolu

Abstract

Traffic arrivals at signal intersection approaches is inherently stochastic. This variability is typically reflected by I-ratio and there is a general consensus that the presence or absence of nearby upstream signal affects Variance to Mean Ratio (I-ratio). However, the effect of time resolution on arrival variability and the interaction effect between upstream signal and time resolution is yet to be examined in detail. This can lead to model misspecification and invariably, erroneous outcomes. This work examines the effect of time resolution and intersection type and their interaction on I-ratio and the resultant probability distributions. Traffic arrivals were measured at high time resolution- 10 seconds interval and then aggregated to lower time resolutions (30-150 seconds) at six intersections. Spectral density analysis showed statistically significant periodicity, specifically at 30 seconds interval with p-values < 0.0001 at all connected intersections while observations at isolated intersections lacked periodicity. Two-way ANOVA using I-ratio as the dependent variable and intersection type and time-resolution as the independent variables was performed. Statistically significant effect with F-value 8.606 at p-value < 0.0001 and R2 value 0.32 were observed. Intersection type, time resolution and the interaction between them were statistically significant, with p-values 0.002, < 0.0001 and 0.000 respectively. The combined effect of these factors led to a wide I-ratio range of 0.37-9.2. Negative Binomial, Poisson, and Binomial distributions represented 76.4, 20.4 and 4.2% of all I-ratios observed. Therefore, in contrast to literature which recommends Poisson, Negative Binomial may be a better suited probability distribution for traffic arrivals.

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