Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Temperature Trend Of Hadeija-Jama’are River of the Chad Basin in Northern Nigeria

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I. M. Sanni
H. A. Ahmed
U. A. Abubakar
S. A. Abdullahi

Abstract

Time series of temperature dataset was analyzed using the installed packages of non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Sen.slope test and Pettitt’s test in R Programming; freely available user-friendly software, to reveal the characteristics of the dataset and the basin response to local climatic variability. The selected non-parametric tests were recommended by the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) for the analysis of hydro-climatic time series data. Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to delineate the watershed extent (Hadeija-Jama’are River Basin) and projected to WGS 1984 UTM Zone 32N. The basin is an integral of Lake Chad Basin that lies between 13oN and 10.50oN, 7.50oE and 10.75oE.  Daily radar hydro-meteorological dataset of maximum temperature was downloaded from fifteen satellite points over the basin. Each satellite point consists of thirty-two years (1982 to 2013) daily data. Man-Kendall trend tests that revealed the direction and significance of trend in time series showed that, there exist increases in temperature trend at a significance level of 95%. The Sen Slope statistical test that quantified the trend in the temperature revealed an increase at an average linear rate of approximately 0.1oC from 1982 to 2013. The Pettitt’s test showed that the increases in the temperature trend started in the year 1998. The spatial analysis done using GIS showed that the temperature increases form the southern to northern and from western to the eastern part of basin in the range of 33.2oC to 38.5oC. The analyses provided evidence that the basin is responding to increases in localized temperature, as revealed by the non-parametric tests. It suggests that the basin will be vulnerable and strongly impacted by local climate variability, with extensive consequences for human societies and the ecosystems.

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