Computational Modelling Technique for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting

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A. R. Iyanda
O. A. Odejobi

Abstract

One of the major crises facing developing countries of which Nigeria is not an exception is the problem of epileptic power supply. Fifty years after supposedly seeing the light of independence, Nigerians are still literarily living in the dark. This is due to such factors as poor and insufficient power infrastructure resulting from poor funding, mismanagement of the available power resources (both human and material), vandalism, etc contribute to the above problem. This problem has invariably led to stagnation in the kinds of investments in the country, as power is a crucial component of sustainable development. Hence, the need for developing a computational model that will help to produce a 24-hour forecast of electric load. The design was done using coloured petri net tool and implemented using fuzzy logic tool in Matlab 7. Result showed that percentage electric load consumption for raining season is lower than the one consumed in harmattan, therefore more focus should be given to generating more power during harmattan than during raining season for adequate management of the generated electric power.

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References

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