• Obinna Obiora-Okeke Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
  • J. R. Adewumi Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
  • O. M. Ojo Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria



Land use and land cover, Markov Chain model, HEC-HMS model, Ogbese river, Watershed


Land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Ogbese watershed due to urbanization implies increased areas of low infiltration. This results to higher flow rates downstream the watershed. This study estimates the changes in peak flow rates at the watershed’s outlet for present and future LULC. Rainfall-runoff simulation was achieved with Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) version 4.2 while future LULC was projected with Markov Chain model. Rainfall inputs to the hydrologic model were obtained from intensity-duration-frequency curves for Ondo state. Landsat 7, Enhanced Thematic mapper plus (ETM+) image and Landsat 8 operational land imager (OLI) with path 190 and row 2 were used to generate LULC images for the years 2002, 2015 and 2019. Six LULC classes were extracted as follows: built up area, bare surface, vegetation, wetland, rock outcrop and waterbody.  Future LULC in year 2025 and 2029 were projected with Markov Chain model. The model prediction was verified with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NSE). NSE value of 0.79 was calculated indicating LULC changes in the watershed was Markovian. Results show that built up area cover in 2019 is projected to increase by 26.1% in 2024 and 39.9% in 2029 and wetland is projected to decreased by 1.2% in 2024 and 2.3% by 2029. Runoff peaks for these LULC projections indicate increase by 0.24% in 2024 and 1.19% in 2029 at the watershed’s outlets for 100-year return period rainfall.



Adegbola, P.S.; Adewumi, J.R. and Obiora-Okeke, O.A. (2021). Application of Markov chain model and ArcGIS in land use projection of Ala River Catchment in Akure, Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Technological Development, 18(1): 30-38.

Akinbile, C.O. and Olatunji, O. (2018). Quality assessment and classification of Ogbese river using water quality index (WQI) tool. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 4: 1023–1030.

Cabral, P. and Alexander, Z. (2009). Markov processes in modeling land use and land cover changes in Sintra-Cascais, Portugal. Dyna, 76(158): 191-198.

Eke, E.E.; Oyinloye, M.A. and Olamiju, I.O. (2016). Analysis of the urban expansion for the Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria. International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences, 72: 41-55.

Ellis, E. and Pontius Jr., R.G., (2006). Land use and land cover change - Encyclopedia of Earth

Esho, B. (2019 September, 2). Flooding: Residents of Idanre, Ogbese, Akungba rendered homeless. Independent Newspaper. Retrived from

Francisco, O. and Maidment, D.R. (1999). GIS tools for HMS modeling support. 19th Annual ESRI International User Conference, San Diego, California

Kamusoko, C.; Aniya, M.; Adi, B. and Manjoro, M. (2009). Rural sustainability under threat in Zimbabwe-Simulation of future land use/cover changes in the Bindura district based on the Markov-cellular automata model. Applied Geography, 29(3): 435–447.

Knebl, M.R.; Yang, Z.L.; Hutchison, K. and Maidment, D.R. (2005). Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS and HEC-HMS/RAS: A case study for the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event. Journal of Environmental Management, 75(4): 325-336.

Krause, P.; Base, F and Boyle, D.P. (2005). Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Advances in Geoscience, 5: 89–97.

Jinkeng, Z., Li, Q.; Hanyi, R.; Tianhui, Z.; Dapeng, Z.; Youpeng, X. and Xu, C. (2012). Assessing the effects of urbanization on annual runoff and flood event using integrated hydrological modeling system for Qinhuai River basin China. Journal of hydrology, 464 (465): 127 – 139.

Oleyiblo, J.O. and Li, Z.J. (2010). Application of HEC-HMS for flood forecasting in Misai and Wan'an catchments in China. Water Science & Engineering, 3: 14-22.

Oriye, O. (2013). Urban expansion and urban land use in Ado Ekiti, Nigeria. American Journal of Research Communication, 1(2): 128-139

Sathees, K., Nisha, R. & Samson, M. (2014). Land use change modelling using a Markov model and remote sensing, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 5 (2): 145-156.

United States Army Corps of Engineers. (2000). HEC-HMS hydrologic modeling system user‘s manual. Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California.